Oct.16
11:31 PM ET
Warren Buffett's NY Times Op-Ed: Buy American. I Am.
This is the text of an opinion piece written by Warren Buffett and published in the New York Times on Friday, October 17, 2008:
這是一份由華倫巴菲特在紐約時報發表的文章
Buy American. I Am.
錢進美國
By Warren E. Buffett
The financial world is a mess, both in the United States and abroad. Its problems, moreover, have been leaking into the general economy, and the leaks are now turning into a gusher. In the near term, unemployment will rise, business activity will falter and headlines will continue to be scary.
最近，不論是海外或是美國的投資市場都簡直是糟透了，而且風暴涵蓋整個經濟體，影響遍及每一個人。失業率將會逐漸上升，所有的經濟活動趨緩，而且所有利空消息肯定是讓人感到害怕。
So ... I've been buying American stocks. This is my personal account I'm talking about, in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities.
Why?
所以，我已經開始買進美國的股票，我說的是我過去只持有美國債券(這裡提到的不是手上早已信託慈善基金的波克夏股票）的私人帳戶;而且只要價格持續具有吸引力，手上所有跟波克夏無關的資產將會百分之百的投入美國的股票。
為什麼呢？
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation's many sound companies make no sense. These businesses will indeed suffer earnings hiccups, as they always have. But most major companies will be setting new profit records 5, 10 and 20 years from now.
我的投資邏輯很簡單，當其他人貪心的時候我們必須要更謹慎，當其他人害怕的時候，我們必須要貪心。毫無疑問的，恐懼正逐漸的擴散當中，甚至影響許多市場的老手。或許我們必須要避開或降低高槓桿的投資工具或是商品，但是害怕於投資一些受長期繁榮且體質健全的國際型公司是很愚蠢的一件事。這些公司的業務仍然實實在在的在創造獲利，就像過去一樣繼續賺錢，而且業績會從現在開始五年、二十年後繼續創新高。
Let me be clear on one point: I can't predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven't the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over.
我必須說清楚我的觀點 : 我無法預測股票市場的短期波動，甚至我從來不知如何預測下個月或一年後的高點與低點。什麼才是適當且正確的方法?不論如何，投資人的情緒或經濟已經轉為樂觀之前，市場早就已經轉為樂觀或是經濟已經好轉；因此當你在等秋天的候鳥來臨時，春天已經過去了。
A little history here: During the Depression, the Dow hit its low, 41, on July 8, 1932. Economic conditions, though, kept deteriorating until Franklin D. Roosevelt took office in March 1933. By that time, the market had already advanced 30 percent. Or think back to the early days of World War II, when things were going badly for the United States in Europe and the Pacific. The market hit bottom in April 1942, well before Allied fortunes turned. Again, in the early 1980s, the time to buy stocks was when inflation raged and the economy was in the tank. In short, bad news is an investor's best friend. It lets you buy a slice of America's future at a marked-down price.
有一些歷史經驗:道瓊指數在1932年7月8號時下跌到只有41點，而且景氣持續下挫直到富蘭克林的D.Roosevelt 在1993年3月買下一間公司才露出一道曙光，但此時道瓊指數已經比之前還要上漲30%了。再往前看，第二次世界大戰之前歐洲跟亞洲對美國造成許多的負面影響，市場在1942年4月份開始打底，比盟軍戰勢轉好還要提前。還有更早之前，1980年左右，最佳買股票的時機是在通膨最嚴重而且經濟還在泥沼之中的時後。簡單來說，壞消息是投資人最好的朋友，它可以讓你用最便宜的價格買到一片美好美國的未來!
Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497.
眼光放遠，股票市場永遠會好轉；在20世紀，美國就熬過了第二次世界大戰、昂貴的軍備競賽、景氣蕭條、還有許許多多的景氣衰退跟經濟恐慌、石油危機、各種傳染病(SARS)、總統醜聞下台，然而指數依然故我從66點大漲到了11497。(譯者:道瓊指數在20世紀大漲了197倍)
You might think it would have been impossible for an investor to lose money during a century marked by such an extraordinary gain. But some investors did. The hapless ones bought stocks only when they felt comfort in doing so and then proceeded to sell when the headlines made them queasy.
你可能會覺得，道瓊指數在這期間有如此豐厚的報酬應該沒有投資人會賠錢，事實上有一些人是如此的，這些倒楣的人只會在覺得舒服的時候才去買股票，當新聞標題讓人反胃的時候賣出股票。
Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn't. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts.
如今，持有現金資產令許多人感到舒服，他們不應該如此，這些人選擇使用的長期資產配置是最糟糕的，不但無法創造真實的獲利，甚至價值還不斷的減少。實際情況是，政府的政策會為了不使市場變的更壞而導致通貨膨脹，如此會使得現金加速貶值。
Equities will almost certainly outperform cash over the next decade, probably by a substantial degree. Those investors who cling now to cash are betting they can efficiently time their move away from it later. In waiting for the comfort of good news, they are ignoring Wayne Gretzky's advice: 「I skate to where the puck is going to be, not to where it has been.」
十年後，投資股票幾乎確定會勝過持有現金，亦或是持有其他有實體的資產也是。擁抱現金的投資人正猜測何時買進股票最有效率，在等待好消息的時刻，他們忽略了 Wayne Gretzky的建議，我只出現在曲棍球比賽開始之前，而不是當比賽開始的時候。
I don't like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I'll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: 「Put your mouth where your money was.」 Today my money and my mouth both say equities.
我不喜歡在股票市場發表評論，並再次強調本人並無法對短期股票市場走勢發表任何意見；儘管如此，我的餐館會在空盪的銀行裡開幕，廣告詞是:你的錢放哪?
Warren E. Buffett is the chief executive of Berkshire Hathaway, a diversified holding company.
